Afghanistan has a dour political and economic future beyond the 2014 drawdown date for most international military forces, the World Bank said.
Kabul last week hosted a Loya jirga tasked with spelling out a future relationship with the United States as U.S. forces start to consider leaving the country.
The World Bank estimates the United States spent $118.6 billion on its mission in Afghanistan during fiscal year 2011. Most of that spending, the bank said, doesn't necessarily get to Afghanistan because it is spent on military hardware and pay for military troops.
"And not even all aid spent in Afghanistan feeds into the domestic economy, as it goes out in imports of goods and services, expatriated profits and remittances," the bank said in a 28-page presentation.
The bank said it found that when international troops leave, so does civilian aid, which has "implications for economic growth, fiscal sustainability and service delivery."
The bank recommends Afghanistan focus on ways to implement effective customs reform and establish accountability mechanisms for mineral revenues.
U.S. defense officials estimated in 2010 that there could be as much as $1 trillion worth of iron, copper, cobalt, gold and lithium in Afghanistan.
The World Bank recommended that "reductions in international assistance (to Afghanistan) are gradual, predictable, and orderly, since sharp fluctuations in aid, especially abrupt aid cutoffs, can be extremely damaging and lead to state collapse."