World crude oil price rose by 7.8% during the period (12 July-12 June 2013) to reach USD 101.92 per barrel on fresh signs that the U.S. economic recovery is gathering pace and investors overcame concerns that the US Federal Reserve may begin to cut its stimulus measures as soon as September, said a specialized report issued today.
The report, by Global Investment House, said that U.S. consumer confidence jumped in June to its highest level in over five years as Americans were more optimistic about business and labor market conditions. Moreover, U.S. job growth increased more than expected in June as Employers added 195,000 new jobs to their payrolls. The report added that the market was also supported by renewed geopolitical risk in Egypt as the Egyptian military took control of the nation.
Mixed signs remain in the Euro-zone; China's manufacturing sector has weakened as the Euro-zone economic confidence improved more than expected in June to its highest level in one year, while the Market's Flash Euro-zone Composite PMI rose to 48.9 in June from May's 47.7, said the report. Despite these positive factors, joblessness in the Euro bloc stood at a record 12.1 percent in May, with the number of people out of work rising further above 19mn. On the other hand, China's manufacturing sector weakened further in June to a 9-month low as new orders faltered. However Japan's economy has improved as exports rose 10.1 percent in the year to May and industrial output rose 2.0 percent in May from the previous month, said the report.
The report indicated that world oil demand growth is steady near 0.80mnbpd in 2013. OPEC held its forecast for growth in world oil demand, unchanged at 0.
80mnbpd to average 89.6mnbpd in 2013. Global oil demand in the second half of the year is still predicted to pick-up supported by seasonal peaks and anticipation that global economy will recover. OPEC forecasts world oil demand would reach 90.1mnbpd and 90.8mnbpd in the third and fourth quarters, respectively.
Meanwhile, OPEC production in June is estimated at 30.38mnbpd, a decline of 0.31mnbpd, broadly in line with the average demand for OPEC's crude in the second half of 30.47mnbpd.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) raised its 2013 world oil demand growth forecast by 0.01mnbpd to 0.88mnbpd YoY, and by 0.05mnbpd to 1.
24mnbpd YoY for 2014. On the other hand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) sees global oil demand growing by 1.2mnbpd in 2014, up from 0.93mnbpd in 2013. The agency says that economic backdrop underpinning oil demand will brighten in 2014 and China is expected to remain the main engine of growth, said the report.