Investors should retain holdings in commodities even as the global economy expands at a slower pace as raw-material demand is strong enough to support further gains, JPMorgan Chase & Co said, forecasting gold and copper rallies.
Gold will advance to a record $1,800 an ounce by yearend, while copper will revisit $10,000 per metric ton, Colin P Fenton and Matthew Lehmann wrote in a report on Wednesday. The bank had raised price forecasts for both metals, they said, without giving the earlier calls. The bank can’t release to the media a separate report with the full estimates, said spokeswoman Polly Leung in Hong Kong, citing compliance policy.
Commodities as measured by the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index fell for six consecutive days to yesterday, the longest slump since May 2010, on concern the global economy is slowing. JPMorgan cut its forecast for third-quarter US growth by a percentage point to 1.5 percent, Chief US Economist Michael Feroli said yesterday. The US is the world’s largest user of oil, and is second to China in terms of copper and aluminum.
“Baring a material contraction in global growth, which we do not currently expect, commodities should continue to move higher,” said New York-based Fenton, global head of commodities research and strategy, and London-based Lehmann, a strategist. “Even at a now slower pace, global growth in the second half should be enough to outpace still-constrained supply in the major commodity markets.”
The S&P GSCI Spot Index has advanced 6.4 percent this year, driven by gains in precious metals, lean hogs and energy. The gauge rallied 20 percent last year and soared 50 percent in 2009 as the global economy emerged from recession.
“In keeping with our overall portfolio strategy to put our money as far from the current crisis spots as possible, we stay long commodities,” they wrote, referring to bets on gains. Gold is the “top pick” for August, they wrote.
Spot gold climbed to record $1,672.80 an ounce on Wednesday, taking this year’s gain to 17 percent, as investors sought haven assets. Three-month copper traded at $9,580 per ton on the London Metal Exchange at 11:45 am in Singapore today. The metal touched an all-time high of $10,190 on February 15.
From / Arabian Business news