Goldman Sachs fell into line with other banks yesterday as it cut its 2012 Brent crude and copper price forecasts, on growing worries that the European financial crisis would restrain economic growth and curb global fuel demand.
The US investment bank, known by some of its competitors as a ‘perma-bull' for its relatively high commodity price forecasts, trimmed its 2012 Brent price estimate to $120 (Dh440) a barrel from $130 and cut its forecast for US light crude, also known as WTI, to $109 from $123.50.
Goldman Sachs had the highest Brent 2012 forecast of $130 a barrel in the latest Reuters monthly oil poll, well above an average of $106.80 a barrel next year.
It is now in line with forecasts by other banks, including UniCredit, and below forecasts from ANZ Bank and CIBC.
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"The market continues to focus on the risk of a new economic recession, triggered by the stress on the European financial and banking system," Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a note.
"We expect the financial stress in Europe will continue to present headwinds to economic and oil demand growth next year."
A growing number of analysts have trimmed their oil price forecasts over the last three months amid growing concerns about the economic outlook and the European debt crisis.
According to Reuters columnist John Kemp, Goldman Sachs analysts were the most accurate price forecasters for 2011.
Despite the cut in price expectations, Goldman Sachs noted the market has recently seen heavy destocking ahead of a potential crisis.
"If a crisis does not occur, the oil market risks running into pressing supply constraints, requiring sharply higher prices to force demand in line with supplies," the bank said.
The arrival of new rail capacity to the landlocked US market will see the recent strength in the WTI-Brent spread narrow to $16 per barrel, $13 and $6.50 on a three-, six- and 12-month horizon.
"We expect that the WTI-Brent spread will likely remain wide as new Can-adian and North Dakota supplies enter the market, but will narrow as large amount of new rail capacity comes online by second quarter 2012," the Goldman Sachs note said.