Among the gloom in the market where prices fell by almost $40 (Dh146.93) a barrel in the last few months, a report titled ‘Oil: The Next Revolution’ written by Leonardo Maugeri of the Harvard Kennedy School of Government was issued in June 2012.
It predicts oil production capacity growing fast, with worldwide projects of up to 45 million barrels a day (mbd) under development upto 2020. However, the author sees risks on the way and only 29 mbd may be realised. The majority of the projects cited are driven by the price of oil in the last decade and most of them need a minimum price of $70 a barrel to be viable.
Four countries stand out in this prediction — almost 13.3 mbd capacity increase will be contributed by Iraq, USA, Brazil and Canada.
India’s rupee traded near a two-week high after European leaders agreed on measures to ease their region’s debt crisis, boosting demand for riskier assets.
The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index of shares gained for a fourth day after euro-area policy makers relaxed conditions on bailout funds for Spanish banks and potential assistance to Italy at a two-day summit that concluded on Friday in Brussels. The rupee was little changed today after central bank data published on Friday showed India’s current-account deficit widened to 4.2 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the year through March from 2.7 per cent in the previous 12 months.
“The near-term rupee trajectory will likely be influenced by global developments and risk sentiment rather than India’s balance-of-payment fundamentals,” economists at Barclays Plc’s investment banking unit, including Mumbai-based Siddhartha Sanyal, wrote in a report today.
The rupee was traded at 55.6425 per dollar as of 10.04am in Mumbai, compared with 55.6375 on Friday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency surged 2.1 per cent on Friday and 2.7 per cent last week, the biggest advances since 2009, paring losses in the quarter ended on Saturday to 8.6 per cent.Implied volatility
One-month implied volatility, a measure of exchange-rate swings used to price options, fell 15 basis points today, or 0.15 percentage point, to 11.50 per cent.
The rupee rallied last week on optimism Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will accelerate economic reforms after he took over the country’s finance ministry.
Technical charts indicate that the rupee’s “days of gloom are over”, Edelweiss Financial Advisors Ltd. said in a report today, predicting an advance to 54.80. The Indian currency touched a record low of 57.3275 on June 22.
Three-month onshore currency forwards traded at 56.66 per dollar, compared with 56.86 on June 29, and offshore non-deliverable contracts were at 56.70 from 57.05. Forwards are agreements to buy or sell assets at a set price and date. Non-deliverable contracts are settled in dollars.