China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to slow modestly next year to 7.1 percent, but employment and inflation will remain stable, its central bank said Monday, state-run Xinhua News Agency reported.
"Real GDP growth will decelerate slightly to 7.1 percent in 2015, reflecting partly the slowdown in real estate investment," said a working paper written by a group of economists of the People's Bank of China. China's GDP growth for 2014 is estimated at 7.4 percent, the research group said.
Inflation will be 2.2 percent next year, slightly higher than this year's estimated reading of 2.0 percent, said the paper. According to their research, fixed asset investment growth will soften to 12.8 percent next year, down from an estimated expansion of 15.5 percent in 2014, dragged by slower investment into the real estate sector.
Thanks to a recovery in the global economy, export growth will pick up to 6.9 percent in 2015 from an expected reading of 6.1 percent in 2014, while import growth will accelerate to 5.1 percent from 1.9 percent.
Risks to the forecasts include geopolitical factors such as the Ukraine crisis, as well as uncertainties associated with global commodity prices, the pace of the US rate hike and China's real estate market outlook, said the paper. It also noted that China's job market will remain resilient next year.