We are now well into the summer and although volume has been low the price patterns in the UAE market general indices are trending. Investors will be watching for positive earnings surprises over the coming weeks as a possible catalyst for renewed interest.
Last week, the DFMGI gained 40.92 or 2.70 per cent to close at 1,557.85. Although volume improved slightly from the prior week it remained low historically. Market breadth did not fully confirm the strength as declining issues lead advancing at 18 to 12, respectively.
Support held early at the beginning of the week around the 50 per cent retracement (1,515.10) of the uptrend measured from the early March 2011 low, with the index seeing a brief rally from there. Subsequently, the DFMGI moved sideways in a tight range indicating that the buyers were aggressive enough to keep the index from falling back to that support area. A move higher could be seen this week on a break above the 1,564.35, the high of last week.
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If the index moves above that level more aggressive selling, resistance would likely be seen in the area of the shorter downtrend line and the 200 period exponential moving average (ema), now at 1,592.29. Note on the accompanying chart how the downtrend line and the 200ema are converging around the same price area.
This is the market's way of telling us to keep an eye on that price area as there's a good chance selling resistance will intensify there. A move through that resistance area and close above would be a bullish signal for the medium term.
Alternatively, a move through 1,544.41, support of the range, signals a pullback at least to the 50 per cent level and possibly a break below support of 1,503.57, the low of two weeks ago. A close below 1,503.57 signals a continuation of the downtrend begun 11 weeks ago.
The 11-week downtrend is still well in place and indicates that the market could see further downside in the coming weeks. Again, that outlook changes upon a close above the 200ema, and further strengthens on a close above the high of 1,612.6. A close above the 1,612.6 is a sign that the current pullback may be over and that the uptrend is ready to continue. This could take weeks if not months to develop however.
The next support area below 1,503.57 can be anticipated around 1,473.44, which is the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of the March 2011 uptrend. Also, below there is previous support around 1,425.79.
The Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange General Index closed 10.58 or 0.39 per cent higher last week at 2,714.77. Advancing issues were slightly above declining at 19 to 15, respectively. Volume was a little bit above the previous week but still low historically.
The chart pattern that has been developing in the ADI continues to show greater strength overall than the price action represented in the DFMGI. Although seeing a bit of a pullback currently, the ADI remains in a short term uptrend with selling pressure minimal to date - over the past several weeks.
Support of the pullback from the 2,777.21 high was found around the 38.2 per cent Fibonacci retracement level (2,707.04) of the uptrend measured from the late May 2011 low. As of last Thursday, last week's bounce is showing signs of turning back over with a further pullback indicated. Watch for a close below near term support of 2,699.43, for short term bearish confirmation.
A move below that level would likely see the ADI drop to at least to 2,685.37, the 50 per cent retracement level of the May 2010 uptrend. This is not too far from potential support of the 200ema, now at 2,676.38. Thereafter, the 61.8 per cent Fibonacci retracement level of 2,663.79 should be watched for possible support. Together these indicators along with previous price action create a zone of support from 2,685.37 to 2,655.
Upside strength is indicated with a close above last week's high of 2,729.33. At that point a continuation of the six week uptrend is indicated increasing the odds that the ADI will breach the 2,777.21 high of several week ago.
Deyaar Development continues to consolidate in a slight downward sloping pattern with trading above and below its 200ema. A couple weeks ago, it broke down from an initial tight consolidation pattern but has not seen more aggressive selling since. In other words, so far it is holding up pretty well and when strength returns to the market a breakout to the upside is still possible. A close above Dh0.304 signals strengthening and the beginning of a breakout, while a close above Dh0.313 will indicate further confirmation of buying strength.
Similar price behaviour has been occurring in Union Properties. A breakdown from an initial tight consolidation pattern occurred a couple weeks ago, but so far, Union has held support of its 200ema and has not closed below support of Dh0.384, at the bottom of the pattern. The initial consolidation pattern has been evolving into a larger pattern.
In each of these cases the consolidation patterns come after strong rallies off the bottom and indicate underlying strength of the medium term trends.