Turkish annual inflation decelerated even more sharply than forecast to 8.28 per cent in May from 11.14 per cent in April, data showed, bolstering confidence in an unorthodox monetary policy and prompting bond yields to ease slightly.
The better than expected showing was supportive for the central bank’s strategy, though the market reaction was tempered by expectations that upward pressure on prices would resume in coming months.
“May data should help restore the credibility of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey and its unorthodox policy mix in a significant way,” Yarkin Cebeci, economist at JP Morgan Bank in Istanbul, wrote in a note.
Since late 2010 the Central Bank (CB) has been using a complex mix of monetary tools, including a low policy rate to support growth and daily repo auctions to restrain inflation and a huge current account deficit.
The Statistics Institute data showed consumer prices fell 0.21 per cent month-on-month in May, below a Reuters poll forecast for a 0.40 per cent rise.
Inflation in April was running at its highest since 2008, and well above both the central bank’s year-end target of 5 per cent and its forecast of 6.5 per cent.
There has been some concern among analysts that the central bank was at risk of falling behind the curve containing inflation.
Cebeci expected inflation to rise to 9.4 per cent in June and stay above 9 per cent until September.
“Given worries over the inflationary impact, we see the CBRT (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey) keeping liquidity tight and supporting the lira at least until the last quarter of the year,” Cebeci said.
The yield on Turkey’s benchmark bond maturing on March 5, 2014, eased to 9.22 per cent after the inflation data. The yield had been trading at 9.25 earlier, and had closed on Friday at 9.35 per cent.
he lira was 1.8535 to the dollar, little moved by the inflation data, but firmer than late on Friday’s level of 1.8598.
The central bank warned on Friday that inflation will be significantly above the year-end target until the fourth quarter, despite a decline in May.
from / Gulf Today